The People's Party just hit 3.1% on the CBC Poll Tracker, the first time the party has touched the 3% mark. This follows recent unpopular actions by Scheer’s Conservatives which prompted some CPC supporters to defect to the PPC. It also follows the announcement of the first People's Party candidates across the country.
Poll results will continue to rise as Maxime Bernier continues to release his policy platform, especially if Scheer and Trudeau continue to stumble.
Recent policy announcements by Scheer fell flat for many observers.
Scheer also dismissed Conservative MP Michael Cooper from a House of Commons committee for exercising his right to free speech and refused to accept Salim Mansur as a CPC candidate. Both actions were unpopular among many Conservative supporters.
Meanwhile, Trudeau became less articulate than ever with his instant classic “drink box water bottle sort of thing,” overshadowing whatever announcement he was trying to make that day.
People's Party candidates will become increasingly active campaigning over the coming weeks. There will also be more candidate and policy announcements, leading up to a party conference in Ottawa on the weekend of August 17 and 18.
By that time, the PPC should have candidates and riding associations in all 338 ridings across the country. The conference will be both a celebration of this accomplishment and a launch for the PPC campaign, leading to the federal election two months later.
It looks increasingly likely that the PPC will be able to reach 5% in the polls by the end of August, just one year after Bernier left the Conservatives. This will be an unprecedented accomplishment in Canada, where other parties have languished with less support for decades.
5% will also be a psychological tipping point. Unlike the United States, which has an almost unending election cycle, most campaigning in Canada is done within a few weeks of the election. If the People's Party can reach such a high level of support even before the writ is dropped, they will have a good chance of making strong gains during the election period. Causing more supporters of other parties to shift their vote to the PPC, and putting the People’s Party within striking distance of victory on 21 October.